- For the second straight week, the top political betting sites have Donald Trump as the underdog to in the 2020 presidential election.
- Trump now has fewer than 5 months remaining to swing momentum back in his direction. He hopes to do just that by resuming his massive campaign rallies.
- Entering the week of June 14, Betway and 888 Sport are tied as the political betting sites offering the most value on Donald Trump winning the general election at +115.
|Political Betting Site||Trump Election Odds|
- Odds current as of 6/14.
- (Some sportsbooks may offer more favorable odds, but have not been vetted for quality by our reviewers)
Best Place to Bet on Donald Trump Winning the 2020 Presidential Election – Week of 6/14
Most Favorable Trump Odds:Tie: Betway / 888 Sport
Betting Line: +115
Implied Probability: 46.51%
Heading into the week of 6/14, Betway and 888 Sport are tied as the two of all our reviewers’ top-rated political betting sites offering Donald Trump backers the most value. The two websites’ oddsmakers have Trump listed as a slight underdog in the 2020 presidential election at +115.
As we start a new week, Donald Trump finds himself in a precarious situation – depending on who you believe. The pollsters show an incumbent getting plastered nationally, and the future isn’t looking much better on a state-by-state basis. Now, survey results show the President breaking even with his Democratic challenger in traditional Republican strongholds like Texas.
Political oddsmakers don’t seem as convinced that Trump is floundering. While poll numbers show an incumbent trailing by double-digits, online bookies see a contest just-barely more one-sided than a coin toss. However, the President was favored for the vast majority of this election cycle, so Biden replacing and improving his lead over the past two weeks is newsworthy.
The Trump campaign has just under five months to improve their standing with the electorate. 2020 has been about as unlucky as an incumbent’s reelection year could be – not that the President has always made life easy for himself in that regard.
Noteworthy Headlines from the Past Week
Trump has his work cut out for him. Democrats can smell blood in the water, and the establishment is hitting him with everything they have. They’ve even figured out how to properly attack his vanity, which was on full display last week as footage emerged of the President apparently struggling to navigate a downward-sloping ramp.
The incumbent’s campaign hopes that resuming its packed stadium rallies will be the catalyst for a momentum shift. If Trump wants to move the race into an arena in which he can outperform Joe Biden, live, unpredictable appearances are probably the way to go.
Trump Campaign Changes Rally Date in Tulsa
We had previously scheduled our #MAGA Rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, for June 19th – a big deal. Unfortunately, however, this would fall on the Juneteenth Holiday. Many of my African American friends and supporters have reached out to suggest that we consider changing the date out…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 13, 2020
Last week, I covered President Trump restarting his campaign rallies, with his first return to action taking place on June 19th in Tulsa, Oklahoma. That day is also known as Juneteenth, a holiday commemorating the day slaves were freed in America. Tulsa is also the scene of one of the worst white-on-black acts of terror ever committed, the massacre at “Black Wall Street.”
The timing and location were seen as particularly tone-deaf given then national discourse on race going on at the moment.
Sen. James Lankford on Trump rally: “He didn’t see it as disrespectful to do it on Juneteenth — other people interpreted it differently.” pic.twitter.com/9rYrTsyNrz
— The Hill (@thehill) June 14, 2020
“There’s special sensitivities there in Tulsa, but Juneteenth is a very significant day, so my encouragement to the president was to be able to pick a day around it,” Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said Sunday.
After receiving feedback from the African American community, the Trump campaign has decided to push the rally back a day to June 20th.
Poll Numbers Making Team Trump Nervous in Multiple “Red” States
FiveThirtyEight analyzed every state-level poll in their database conducted between May 1 and June 11 and concluded that the Democrat holds “about a 2-to-8-point lead in some of the most important states in the Electoral College.”
Biden appears to be pulling away from Trump the furthest in Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s also winning, on average, in Arizona, Florida, and to lesser extents, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Equally alarming for Trump, the poll averages show razor-thin margins in Texas and Georgia.
A Quinnipiac University poll released last week shows Trump leading Biden by 1 point in Texas. The RealClearPolitics average puts Trump ahead by 2.2 points. For comparison, he won Texas by 9 points in 2016.
It’s the same story in Arkansas; Trump and Biden are statistically tied! A recent Talk Business and Politics-Hendrix College poll says 47% of likely voters in the state are backing the President. Only 45% are supporting Biden, but the 2-percent difference falls within the 3.3% margin of error.
Don’t let the slight lead fool you; Trump won Arkansas with 60% of the vote last election! Things are getting hectic in the incumbent’s camp – the President’s much further behind Biden at this stage of the game than he was against Hillary.
If Election Day were next weekend, Trump would be doomed. But is it possible that his numbers will recover by November?
Americans have extraordinarily short attention spans; will they maintain their current levels of disapproval?
Both Campaigns Claiming to Expect their Opponent to Challenge Election Results
If you weren’t already terrified by the prospects of some kind of modern-day civil war breaking out eventually, both candidates are now preemptively accusing the other of planning to cheat and/or reject November’s results. Plant that seed in the members of each party’s heads; that won’t have devastating implications for a country that is dealing with dual crises and nationwide protests over police violence.
Fighting Over Mail-In Voting
The President is taking aim at states planning to expand absentee voting, which should increase voter turnout. Trump has been raving about mail-in ballots and the potential for vote harvesting — using third parties to collect absentee ballots from voters, choose the desired candidate, then deliver them to election officials on their behalf. He seems convinced that supplying a ballot to every registered voter’s home will either disproportionately benefit the Democrats (or used by them to cheat).
If it’s just about “who benefits,” I don’t understand what’s making him so nervous; I think the extra absentee ballots and higher voter participation might help the incumbent. Nate Cohn from Times agrees, writing:
“It’s totally conceivable to me that higher turnout would help him in these Midwestern states, where the kind of lower turnout and less educated voters who sat out the midterms probably tilt-GOP.”
Now, there is one legitimate gripe the incumbent could make about an influx of absentee ballots: Over the past four elections, 28 million mail-in votes went missing and weren’t counted.
A recent Real Clear Politics article claims the following:
Between 2012 and 2018, 28.3 million mail-in ballots remain unaccounted for, according to data from the federal Election Assistance Commission. The missing votes amount to nearly one in five of all absentee ballots and ballots mailed to voters residing in states that do elections exclusively by mail.
States and local authorities simply have no idea what happened to these ballots since they were mailed – and the figure of 28 million missing votes is likely even higher because some areas in the country, notably Chicago, did not respond to the federal agency’s survey questions. This figure does not include ballots that were spoiled, undeliverable, or came back for any reason.
Even without foul play, losing a fifth of all mail-in ballots – and that’s before a dramatic increase in counting volume – is an enormous failure of our system. Some of these swing states are decided by a few tens-of-thousands of votes — or less!
Everyone Wants to “Steal” the Election
“This president is going to try to steal this election,” Joe Biden told the host on “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah,” Wednesday night. The presumptive Democratic nominee added, “It’s my greatest concern, my single greatest concern.”
Biden continued by highlighting multiple high-ranking former military officers who have denounced or distanced themselves from the President’s response to the Black Lives Matter protests.
Meanwhile, conservative pols interpret Joe Biden’s repeated accusations as an effort to plant doubt in peoples’ minds concerning the legitimacy of November’s election. The incumbent has already promised to accept the outcome publicly, leading campaign advisers to believe the former VP is preparing voters for a lengthy battle over the results.
Tim Murtaugh, director of communications for the Trump 2020 campaign, says Biden is peddling a “conspiracy theory” meant to undermine voter confidence, and that it’s the Democrats who should be watched.
“It was the Obama administration that tried to subvert an election by spying on the Trump campaign in 2016, and Biden himself was part of the effort to sabotage the incoming Trump administration because they couldn’t live with President Trump’s victory,” Murtaugh said. “President Trump has been clear that he will accept the results of the 2020 election.”