- Long-range weather forecasts calling for the possibility of rain for the February 7 Super Bowl game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Buccaneers in Tampa
- The Chiefs, 3.5-point favorites, could benefit from rain because they were the better running team this season
- See below for the full forecast, plus an analysis of weather’s potential impact
The early weather forecast for the February 7 Super Bowl is calling for the likelihood that it will rain on Tom Brady’s parade.
According to AccuWeather.com, there is a 58-percent chance of precipitation during the evening hours.
A number of Super Bowls have seen trace amounts of rain, but the only Super Bowl played in rain was in 2007 when the Indianapolis Colts downed the Bears.
The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites. But the line could change if the forecast continues to call for rain.
Super Bowl Weather Forecast
|Date/Time||High Temperature||Winds||Chance of Rain||Projected Rainfall|
|Feb. 7/Afternoon||72||W 6 mph||30%||0.0|
|Feb. 7/Evening||59||SE 8 mph||58%||.07 inches|
Tampa forecast taken from AccuWeather.com forecasts
Rain Isn’t Prevalent in Tampa in February
The greater Tampa area only averages six days of rain in February. But one of those days might be February 7 when the Super Bowl comes to town.
AccuWeather.com is calling for the possibility of two hours of rain in the evening hours.
The official forecast is partly cloudy with a chance of showers. But AccuWeather pegs those chances at 58-percent. The temperature projection is 59 degrees for that evening, with 98-percent humidity.
The wind will be blowing at 8 mph, with the possibility of gusts up to 20 mph.
One reason why Brady chose Tampa Bay after he left New England was the chance to play in better weather than he had with the Patriots.
The last time the Super Bowl was played in the rain, in 2007, the game was also in Florida. But that contest was in Miami.
Tom Brady literally said “I wanna go to the Super Bowl playing in the least amount of cold weather games possible” and it happened. #NFLPlayoffs #SuperBowl #NFCChampionshipGame
— RobLobster43 on Twitch (@RobLobster43) January 24, 2021
Inclement Weather Might Favor the Chiefs
If the forecast continues to call for rain, the line could move even more in the Chiefs’ favor. As a general rule, rain impacts the passing game more than the ground game.
Downfield visibility is hindered in the rain. The ball is wet and slippery, therefore harder to grip and throw. Running backs can adjust by running with two hands on the ball.
In theory, rain would equally undermine Brady’s and Patrick Mahomes’ passing game. Brady’s aura centers on his ability to make clutch throws. He’s 6-3 in Super Bowls because he has averaged 315.3 passing yards per appearance. Tampa coaches don’t want to see rain.
Highest-graded rookies in the Super Bowl
1. Tristan Wirfs, Bucs – 82.0
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs – 75.3
3. L’Jarius Sneed, Chiefs – 70.6
4. Willie Gay Jr, Chiefs – 68.1 pic.twitter.com/HByRbj5mlg
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) January 25, 2021
The Chiefs’ advantage would come from being modestly more effective on the ground. Kansas City averaged 113 rushing yards per game, ranking them 16th overall in the NFL. Tampa Bay ranked 27th at 98 yards per game.
Kansas City’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be more dangerous on a slippery field with defenders falling around him as he cuts.
Brady Has Good Record in Inclement Weather
When you are still playing in the NFL at age 43, there’s not much you haven’t seen. Having spent many years in New England, Brady has played through more than his fair share of poor weather.
He mostly saw cold and snow, but he has also played in rain.
Patrick Mahomes was in kindergarten when Tom Brady won his first Super Bowl.
Now Mahomes will face Brady for the title 19 years later ? pic.twitter.com/JKk7WefNBv
— ESPN (@espn) January 25, 2021
Brady has been quoted as saying playing in poor weather conditions is more about the mental aspects than the physical challenges.
While it’s hard to separate out rain games from cold and snow games, we do know that Brady has won 86-percent of his games when there is precipitation involved.