Herbert Becomes Heavy Favorite Over Jefferson in NFL OROY Odds After Chargers Win in Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert warms up before an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, Dec. 13, 2020, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
  • Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s odds have improved to -850 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
  • Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is the second choice at +550
  • See updated odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, along with a betting analysis below

The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is now clearly Justin Herbert’s to lose with three weeks remaining in the season.

The Los Angeles Chargers is the heavy odds-on favorite to win the award. Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is the second choice.

2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Odds
Justin Herbert (Chargers) -850
Justin Jefferson (Vikings) +550
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) +5000

Odds taken Dec. 14 from FanDuel

Herbert’s odds have improved from last week when they were -500. Conversely, Jefferson’s have gotten longer after being +475 a week.

The only other player still being offered on is Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Herbert Shines in Clutch

Herbert led the Chargers to a 20-17 victory over the Atlanta Falcons at home on Sunday, Los Angeles winning on Michael Badgley’s 43-yard field goal as time expired.

It was a marked change for the Chargers. They have lost four games this season either when time expired in regulation or in overtime while going just 4-9.

Herbert completed 36-of-44 passes for 243 yards, two touchdowns and was intercepted once. He also directed the first game-winning drive of his young career.

With 30 seconds left and scored tied 17-17, the Chargers got the ball at its 26-yard line following Michael Davis’ interception of Matt Ryan’s pass intended for Calvin Ridley.

Herbert completed three of four passes, including a 25-yarder to Hunter Henry that got the Chargers to midfield and a 15-yarder to Tyron Johnson. That got Badgley in range to kick the game-winner

Quiet Day for Jefferson

Jefferson, meanwhile, had a quiet day as the Vikings fell 26-14 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a pivotal road game.

Jefferson had four receptions for 39 yards. The loss, just the Vikings’ second in their last seven games, dropped them to 6-7 and out of the third and final NFC wild card spot.

That came after Jefferson was featured on Fox’s pregame show.

Using a ball-control offense that gave them 39:03 time of possessions, the Buccaneers were able to keep quarterback Kirk Cousins off the field and to 225 yards passing.

Cousins had thrown for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games.

Jefferson had his chances as he was targeted a team-high eight times. Yet he wound up with his lowest receiving yardage total since Week 8.


Overall, Jefferson has 65 catches for 1,078 yards and seven touchdowns.

He leads the team in receptions and receiving yards after being drafted in the first round with the 22nd overall pick from LSU. He also stands seventh in the NFL in yardage and sixth in yards per catch with a 16.6 mark.

Impressively, Jefferson is the third-ranked receiver in the league according to Pro Football Focus’ grading system. He trails just Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota teammate Adam Thielen.

Herbert has been a bright spot for the Chargers since replacing Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback in Week 2.

The sixth overall selection in the draft from Oregon, Herbert has completed 64.8% of his passes for 3,224 yards. He also has 23 touchdowns passes against nine interceptions.

Herbert’s 94.7 passer rating ranks just 19th among NFL quarterbacks, and PFF grades him 22nd at the position. However, he is ninth in TD passes and 11th in yards.

Can Jefferson Win?

While the odds are heavily in Herbert’s favor, it would be unwise to completely count Jefferson out.

For starters, the Vikings are still playing for something while the Chargers are not. That could hold some sway with the voters.

While the Vikings face a stiff test in Week 16 when they visit the Saints at New Orleans, they will be favored in their other two remaining games – at home against the Chicago Bears this Sunday and at the Detroit Lions in the finale in Week 17.

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

The Chargers’ last three games are at the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday night, home against the Denver Broncos in Week 16 then the season finale in Kansas City against the Chiefs.

It might not the best idea to bet a large sum on Jefferson, but he still provides enough value to consider a smaller one.

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