Here we go. The first Triple Crown race of the year. It is a bit backwards, but it will be fun none the less. I was looking over today’s card starting Thursday night and I do not see many long prices today. The fields are not that big and the top NY trainers do not have a ton of horses running in what is usually a big showcase day. Today is a good day to hammer the WIN bet.
Race 1 – TURF
- 1 – CONGLOMERATE – Franco/ Brown. First time starter out of LEMON DROP KID. Chad Brown places his horses well.
- 1A – TRAFFIC PATTERN – Irad Ortiz/ Chad Brown. Coupled entry for Brown, this horse out of DYNAFORMER. Irad will be come back with a vengeance after serving a suspension. Look out.
- 7 – HOLY EMPEROR – Saez/Jerkens. Two races back he has 72 Beyer, next race in the slop. He can rate and close. Exotics.
- 9 – STRIKING SPEED – Lezcano/Rice. Second time starter is always key. He is the speed of the speed. Tries turf and is bred for it. If this horse takes to it he could be gone wire wire.
Race 2 – THE WOODY STEVENS – Grade 1
Loaded with speed.
- 2 – MERU – Irad Ortiz/Duarte. Second race off the layoff. Solid 90 Beyer in return. He will be ready. Major threat who can hold in end.
- 3 – MISCHIEVOUS ALEX – Carmouche/Servis. 1/78 bullet two back. Third race of the form cycle and has won last two races with relative ease. May by an underlay.
- 5 – SHOPLIFTED – Jose Ortiz/ Asmussen. In a small field full of speed, here we have the lone closer. This may set up perfect for this horse. Exotics
Race 3 – Dirt
- 2 – CARRIZO – Carmouche/Cannizzo. Horse has been all around the money, but has not won in last six races. Goes turf to dirt. He will be tight for the sprint. Exotics
- 6 – INDIAN PRIDE – Castellano/Brown. Huge drop in class. May win for run but 10 lengths.
- 7 – MRS. DANVERS – Rosario/McGaughey. Sug never rushed his horses. Saw this horse run at Saratoga. Son of TAPIT. Concern as always, maiden winner, even off a layoff facing winners.
Race 4 – THE PENNINE RIDGE – Grade 2 – Turf
This is a tough race.
- 1 – DECORATED INVADER – Rosario/Clement. Second race off layoff. Solid 88 in return. Deep closer is what Rosario does best. Major win horse.
- 2 – VENEZUALAN HUG – Saez/Gargan. These two won with a nice price last week. Solid works coming in; 1/14 and 9/47. Stepping way up in class though. Caution.
- 3 – PROVEN STRATEGIES – Irad Ortiz/Casse. Front end speed who cuts back from 1 1/6 miles to 1 mile. Top 2.
- 5 – VANZZY – Carmouche/Pino If there is a long shot on the day, it is this horse. Horse has been top 2 last 5 races. Three races back wins in stakes race. Next race, Grade 3 Withers, he gets pulled up, neer runs. Comes back next race and wins by 5 in a 100k Stakes race. He is third race of the form cycle out of VERRAZANO. Why not use.
Race 5 – Dirt
- 2 – O’ TROUBLE – Johnny V/Dutrow. Second career start. Solid 78 Beyer in debut. Stretches out a little. Top 2.
- 5 – THE ANGRY MAN – Saez/Wagner. These two have been hot. Second time out, came closing after altering path. Will be running late. Nice price.
- 7 – RARE STRIPE – Rosario/Sisterton. Bullet work, 1/97 is interesting.
- 8 – HAPPY SAVER – Irad Ortiz/Pletcher. Surprised Johnny V is not on. Never ignore a Pletcher baby horse.
Race 6 – THE WONDER AGAIN – Grade 3 – Turf
Think this race is formful and an awful betting race.
- 2 – SWEET MELANIA – Jose Ortiz/Pletcher Has never been out of the money in six career starts. Use in all wagers.
- 4 – ANTOINETTE – Johnny V/Mott. Third race of the form cycle. Will be in top form and won on turf in second career race.
- 5 – SELFLESSLY – Castellano/Brown. Raced in Grade 1 and Grade 2 last two races. This one may be over bet. Caution.
Race 7 – Turf
This race may produce a nice price.
- 3 – SINGLE VERSE – Santana/Altras. Barn change and trainer puts this one back on turf where it got second twice. Drops in class from stakes races. Nice 8-1 morning line.
- 4 – STRONGERTHANUNKOW – Saez/Duarte. Speed horse in here who will try to go wire to wire. Broke maiden last race off the layoff. Now facing winners for first time. Caution!!
- 6 – NOBLE JEWEL – Guiterrez/Martin. Big drop in class. Was put on shelf last summer. Broke maiden on this turf course.
- 10 – LIGHT IN THE SKY – Jose Ortiz/DePaz. Barn change where trainer hits at 25%. Blinkers added and bullet work 1/26.
Race 8 – THE ACORN – Grade 1 – Dirt
- 1 – GAMINE – Johnny V/Baffert. Heavy favorite ships off a 98 Beyer performance. Third career start.
- 3 – WATER WHITE – Vargas/Rodriguez. Third race of the form cycle winning last race out. He is lone deep closer who can rate off the speed horses. Use in exotics.
- 7 – PERFECT ALIBI – Irad Ortiz/Casse. Last ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and got 4th. Race wise this is the class of the field. If she is ready she can win, but that is a big “IF”.
Race 9 – THE JAIPUR – Grade 1 – Turf
- 2 – OLEKSANDRA – Rosario/Drysdale. We bet this horse last time he ran and he got second. That was first off the layoff. He will be flying late in better condition. MOST LIKELY TO WIN ALL DAY!
- 4 – PURE SENSATION – Irad Ortiz/Clement. The fact that Rosario is not on this horse tells you how good Rosario feels about his mount. This horse has been good at this level and loves the course, but he will be on the front end looking to go wire to wire and others in here will pressure him. Top 3.
- 5 – STUBBINS – Saez/O’Neill. Second off the layoff. I like the stretch out to a longer race after racing at 5 1/2 furlongs. He will be rolling late as well.
Race 10 – THE BELMONT STAKES – Grade 1 – Dirt
- 1 – TAP IT TO WIN – Johnny V/Casse. We bet this horse last time he ran and we made big bucks. Third race of the form cycle and this horse is in prime form. Won for fun last out by 5. Stepping way up in class here, but have to use in exotics.
- 3 – MAX PLAYER – Rosario/Rice. You want a long shot in this race, here it is. Second off the layoff, won last race going 5 wide and pulled away to win by 3 in a Grade 3 race. Exotics.
- 8 – TIZ THE LAW – Franco/Tagg. I bet against this horse twice and lost. Not making the same mistake again. I heard this horse put on 6 lbs. since his last race and that his work outs have been sensational. Taking off on the jog out. Not going against him. WINNER!
Race 11 – Turf
This could be the best betting race of the entire day. Eleven entries. Lots going on handicap wise.
- 3 – LARGENT – Saez/Pletcher. Horse has never been out of the top two in five career starts.
- 4 – RED RIGHT HAND – Alvarado/Morley. This horse could be over looked. Won 4 of 6 races prior to being pulled up in November and placed on the shelf, Beyers were going up real good maxing out at 94 before what I assume was an injury. Use in all wagers. And look for this horse second time out. Put this in your notes. LONG SHOT OF DAY
- 6 – PILLAR MOUNTAIN – Rosario/Pletcher. Deep closer on turf with a rider who is known for that style. May not win, but use in exotics.
- 9 – DIGITAL AGE – Irad Ortiz/ Brown. Not your typical Chad Brown horse, but he drops in class and is first off the layoff. Never won at this track or distance.
Race 12 – Turf
- 2 – CRACK SHOT – Saez/Engleheart. Throw out the last race and you have a major player. Bumped at the start and never ran.. Pulled up. Prior to that was top 3 in all races. I think this one tries to go wire to wire and steal it.
- 5 – IMPETUS – Johnny V/Casse. Third race of the form cycle and is second race off the maiden win. The experience against winners will help here. Trying turf for first time, but can do it. SLEEPER
- 7 – QIAN B C – Rosario/Baker. First off the layoff, this horse can rate and close. Broke maiden two back and did well agianst winners next out getting second at 75k. nice 6/79 workout coming in.
- 13 – WHAT THE LUCK – On the AE list, if this one gets in use it in all wagers.
- Race 10-12
- Race 10 – 1, 8
- Race 11 – 3, 4, 9
- Race 12 – 2, 5, 7, 8, 10
- Races 7-10
- Race 7 – 3, 5, 6, 8
- Race 8 – 1, 8
- Race 9 – 2, 4, 5
- Race 10 – 1,8
- Races 9-12
- Race 9 – 2
- Race 10 – 1,8
- Race 11 – ALL
- Race 12 – 2, 5, 7, 8 10
Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz.