James Bond Release Date Odds: Predicting When We’ll See ‘No Time to Die’ in Theaters

James Bond fans have had to endure their longest wait between films in almost three decades, but questions are still afoot as to when the 25th entry in the series, No Time To Die, will be released.

Originally scheduled to hit theaters in November 2019, No Time To Die has been subject to multiple delays due to the coronavirus pandemic and directorial changes. It was recently confirmed the latest 007 movie is now set be released on October 8, 2021—its fifth postponement so far—but what are the chances this new date will be adhered to?

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The cinema industry as a whole has been hit incredibly hard as a result of the pandemic, with many distributors sidestepping to digital releases and streaming apps as an alternative platform for their works. The James Bond franchise is one of the most popular in the world, however, and that means the franchise’s new international distributors, Universal, may keep holding out until viewers are permitted back into theaters on a widespread scale before dropping their latest investment.

No Time To Die will instantly slot in among the top 20 most expensive films of all time, having cost a reported $250 million to produce (without any adjustment for inflation). One can understand why its creators would therefore want to opt for a cinematic release in an attempt to maximize their returns, as home stream alternatives carry a larger risk of piracy (and in turn, lost profits).

The United States is a key audience in these returns, and so the opening of theaters in America gives us a good indication of when we might see Bond back in cinemas. Their situation is complicated by the fact laws are governed largely on a state-by-state basis, and the new administration under President Joe Biden is likely to be stricter than that of his predecessor, Donald Trump.

More than 2.1 million people have died as a result of COVID-19 worldwide, per Johns Hopkins University, and the United States accounts for roughly 20% of that figure (419,000 as of January 25), almost twice as many as any other country. The landscape is constantly changing, but there’s hope we’ll return to some normality in 2021 as more people receive the coronavirus vaccine.

As such, it seems plausible that almost two years after its originally planned release date, we could see Daniel Craig back on the silver screen in his slim-fit suit by the end of this year. But with so much riding on the line, it’s also foreseeable that another spike in the virus could result in further delays.

If we’ve learnt anything up until now, it’s that producers are adamant about getting their timing right in regards to people buying tickets to see No Time To Die, largely expected to be Craig’s fifth and final foray as 007. The longest wait between Bonds before now was the six-year wait between License to Kill (June 1989) and GoldenEye (November 1995) when Pierce Brosnan took over from Timothy Dalton.

Plans for the 25th 007 have been shaken, stirred and sent for a loop up until now, but fans should remain optimistic 2021 will be the year Bond comes back. The following odds are only rough calculations for when No Time To Die will hit theaters as Hollywood looks to get back on its feet this year.

Predicted ‘No Time to Die’ Release Date Odds

Potential Release Date

Predicted Odds

October 2021

-400

November 2021

-200

December 2021

-125

2022

+100

2023 Onwards

+800

At the moment you cannot bet on Next James Bond in the USA, though we expect betting sites will release odds some time in 2021.

Total

0

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