Posh should have enough to stay at the summit of League One
Crewe v Peterborough United
Saturday 14th November, kick-off 15:00
I was fairly startled to see Peterborough trade at 2.26/5 for this match earlier in the week, and surely that’s too good to turn down on the League One leaders?
It means I have to drag in my old nemesis Blackpool to the argument – who recently were a similar price yet were in awful form. The Posh meanwhile are unbeaten in eight league games with seven victories and 19 goals accrued.
Some might say it’s about time. Posh have long threatened to be in this sort of position, and as my ante-post pick for the title, they now trade at 3.8514/5 in the Winner market. It’s pleasing to see our other bet on course too, as I flagged them up in the summer to be the top scorers this season. They lead the way with 21.
What of the Alex?
They’re almost a Brighton-lite team. Lots of possession, play well, but don’t take their chances. Although they arguably create more than Brighton, but they can’t seem to score. Indeed, 1-0 backers have been in clover recently with Crewe losing four of their last five by the very scoreline. Gillingham were the recent visitors and snaffled three points with a real smash-and-grab.
I imagine Gills’ boss Steve Evans said they were the better side. He always does.
In terms of a bet, the Under 2.5 sparks plenty of interest, but the market is predicting well in advance, and the 1.774/5 is a touch short. The difference between the two teams could be the strikers. Although Posh tend to play with Jonson Clarke-Harris up front by himself, his physicality brings others into the game and the likes of Siriki Dembele and Sammie Szmodics could make the difference.
KEY OPTA STAT: Crewe have won just one of their last 12 league meetings with Peterborough (D6 L5).
Can the Dons snatch an unlikely draw?
Sunderland v MK Dons
Saturday 14th November, kick-off 15:00
Sunderland are usually priced-up with an air of invincibility about them, and Saturday is no different with the MK Dons still seeking their first away victory for an age. In fact, the Dons are on a losing run longer than any other in the Football League – it’s 20 games and counting (D8 L12).
But they aren’t a total lost cause at 5.04/1.
Their manager Russell Martin is still sticking with their passing game and is loyal to those principles. So much so, his team topped the recent passing stats for the division with over 6,000, and it will be interesting to see what sort of gameplan his opposite number Phil Parkinson has in store.
The recent 0-0 at Northampton was a fine snapshot of the MK Dons – as they had most of the ball and controlled the game, but they didn’t create enough. That was a real clash of styles against the route one Cobblers
But, they are putting together a small sequence now and Martin believes they are building up a bit of consistency.
There are several angles into this. Sunderland are a laying price, if you are a layer anyway. The Draw outright however is worth a go at 4.03/1, as the Dons have collected four draws on the road this term.
KEY OPTA STAT: Sunderland have lost the fewest games of any team in League One this season (one), whilst no side has conceded fewer than the Black Cats this term.
Plenty of entertainment in store in front of the Sky cameras
Plymouth Argyle v Portsmouth
Monday 16th November, kick-off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football
The Sky cameras have picked a good one for Monday night, although Pompey fans might be rueing the injuries and the international call-ups, but nonetheless, these are two form teams.
Portsmouth have been known to start slowly in a League One season, but they’ve really hit top form on the road with some counter-attacking displays of style. Indeed, they even out-countered in-form Lincoln recently with a superb 3-1 success on the road – with striker John Marquis taking his tally to seven in just five games.
Pompey boss Kenny Jackett is getting it right more often, and they also produced the goods in a rousing 1-3 success at Sunderland.
They won’t be missed in the market though at 2.111/10.
I put up Plymouth recently to beat Swindon and they duly won 4-2 in a brilliant attacking game. It was real end-to-end stuff and there could be an argument here that the Greens are probably the bet at 3.613/5 – or at least to use them on the Double Chance. Ryan Lowe’s team are an attacking side and keep the ball on the floor, quite different to the days of Derek Adams – although there was always a bit of needle with Adams and Portsmouth.
Argyle’s league form reads WWLDWW, so they certainly will be a dangerous opponent. Especially as Pompey face plugging a huge hole down the left-hand side with Ronan Curtis (their best player) on international duty.
KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth are unbeaten in their last 13 home league matches (W10 D3), winning each of their last four.
Click here to read Ian Lamont’s betting preview for Saturday’s League One action