We’re entering the home stretch of the NFL season, and it’s the Browns who are firmly in playoff position with the Ravens battling to earn a final Wild Card spot in the AFC. In a huge game for both AFC North rivals, here’s what jumps out for Monday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
BAL -3 (-106)
If you listened to the first episode of the Unreasonable Odds podcast, we were on the Ravens when they were just one-point favorites (-114 moneyline) back on Thursday. The money has come piling in on Baltimore since, but I still think the Ravens are the right side laying a field goal — I’d pass on the game at 3.5. The Ravens are the more desperate team right now, and are likely still undervalued in the betting market due to some duds. But with the roster finally getting back in order following the COVID-19 outbreak, we should see the Ravens at their best. Sitting on the outside looking in, Baltimore needs this one to keep its Wild Card hopes alive. Meanwhile, it’s hard to argue that the Browns aren’t overvalued right now. Following a first half beatdown of the Titans, Tennessee battled back to make the final score respectable last week. In the other two big divisional games this season, the Browns have been a complete no-show — 38-7 loss to Pittsburgh and 38-6 loss to Baltimore.
J.K. Dobbins Rushing Yards: OVER 46.5 (-134)
Cleveland has a pretty solid run defense, but we’re getting a really low number on Dobbins since the Ravens seem to not have fully committed to the rookie as the featured back. Still, Dobbins should get enough work to find us an over here, earning 11-plus carries in four of his last five. Maybe you feel more comfortable betting his rushing attempts prop on that information, but Dobbins has ripped off a 30-yarder in three of his last six games, and just one of those almost guarantees us the win. Dobbins has consecutive 70-plus yard games on the ground, hitting the over on this number in three of the last five overall.
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Mark Andrews Receiving Yards: OVER 44.5 (-130)
Outside of Baltimore against the spread, Andrews is my favorite prop in this game. The market is a little down on him because he’s been on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the last two games, but Andrews was playing very well prior to his absence. The tight end has turned 16 targets into 12 receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown in his last two games, and finished with a 5-58-2 line in his first matchup against the Browns this season. Andrews had similar success in his last matchup against Cleveland last season, going for 6-93-2 in the last regular season game, and 4-31-1 in the early season matchup. The Browns are a bottom-10 team in yards allowed to TE, and bottom-three in touchdowns allowed to the position. The yards feel like a safe bet at a number this low, but sprinkling on scoring a touchdown at +140, or even the first touchdown at +950 makes sense. He’s scored five times in his last three games against Cleveland.
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