NFL Week 16 odds, picks: Colts continue to send Steelers in a downward spiral, Dolphins top …

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USA Today

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone! Can you believe we’re not only in the thick of the holiday season but also nearing the finish line to the regular season? I feel like I blinked back in September and now I’m surrounded by a foot of snow up here in the northeast. While this season has flown by, we do have two more weeks of full-slated NFL action to enjoy before the playoffs, which means we have plenty of games to bet on. Last week, we were strong on the moneyline with a 12-4 mark but were pretty even ATS with a 7-7-2 record. That even translated on our five locks of the week (4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS).

As we turn our attention to Week 16, we have one game on Christmas and then three on Saturday before a full slate on Sunday. We’ll highlight a bunch of these matchups and make picks for every single one of them below. First, however, let’s look at our five locks of the week. All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook.

Locks of the Week

Detroit at Tampa Bay

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFLN)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-9.5

Detroit finds itself in a bit of disarray after a positive COVID-19 test on Wednesday revealed that the entire defensive staff and interim head coach Darrell Bevell are reportedly considered close contacts. That means there’s some uncertainty as to who’ll actually be able to coach the Lions when they host the Buccaneers on Saturday. That only adds to the pressures of preparing for Tampa Bay on a short week for a Detroit team that has lost four of its last five games. The Bucs still look disjointed offensively but were able to mount a comeback against the Falcons in Week 15. If they can look more like the club they were in the second half of that game, they should be able to cruise to a double-digit victory here.

Projected score: Tampa Bay 28, Detroit 17
My
pick: Tampa Bay -9.5

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Miami at Las Vegas

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFLN)

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
-3

This is a game that the Dolphins desperately need to keep their playoff hopes intact, so there is plenty of motivation heading into Las Vegas. Miami has an NFL-best 11-3 ATS record this season and comes into Saturday covering in four-straight contests. Brian Flores’ defense is allowing just 18.4 points per game and leads the league in takeaways (26), which means the Raiders will have a tough go of it with whoever they start under center. While the offense has some solid pieces, the defense has been Las Vegas‘ undoing and why they’ve lost four of their last five. Jon Gruden’s defense is allowing 36 points per game during this five-game stretch, which is the most in the NFL. The Raiders have also gone 0-4 ATS coming Week 16. Given Las Vegas‘ poor defense, it’s hard to not lean with the Dolphins here.

Projected score: Miami 27, Las Vegas 20
My
pick: Miami -3

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
-1.5

I’m not sure how you can have faith in the Steelers after what we’ve seen from them over the past few weeks with their Monday Night Football loss to the Bengals being rock bottom. After starting the year 11-0, they’ve lost three straight and are averaging just over 16 points per game. They are also 1-4 ATS over their last five contests. They seem like a team that is limping into the postseason and could even lose out on winning the AFC North if they are not careful. As for the Colts, they’ve won five of their last six including three straight victories. They are also 4-2 ATS over that stretch and are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Projected score: Indianapolis 28, Pittsburgh 14
My
pick: Indianapolis -1.5

Buffalo at New England

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-7

The Patriots’ hopes of reaching the playoffs officially died in Week 15 after losing to the Dolphins. Meanwhile, things have never been better for the Buffalo Bills, who’ve won the AFC East for the first time since 1995. Given the big discrepancy between these two teams, it’s no wonder that the Bills are the road favorites here. What’s amazing, however, is that this is the first time since 1999 where Buffalo has been the road favorite in New England. Even with a mediocre offense, the Patriots have been a tough out ATS this season, but Buffalo is just too hot to fade currently. Josh Allen’s club will come into Gillette Stadium on Monday night covering in six-straight games. They’ve also won four straight by double-digits. In his career, Josh Allen has covered 72% of his 20 road starts.

Projected score: Buffalo 34, New England 13
My
pick: Buffalo -7

L.A. Rams at Seattle

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams
+1

Los Angeles was able to beat the Seahawks back in Week 10, 23-16. The Rams gave Russell Wilson fits throughout that contest, picking him off twice and sacking him three times. That performance wasn’t just a one-off as the Rams have largely dominated Seattle under Sean McVay. They are 5-2 SU against the Seahawks under McVay and are currently 3-0 ATS since the start of last season. L.A. also own a +58 point differential in those games under McVay. More recently, Seattle is 3-7 ATS coming into Week 16 since starting 4-0 ATS. The Rams are 4-0 ATS following their last 4 ATS losses, which is noteworthy after being upset by the Jets in Week 15.

Projected score: L.A. Rams 28, Seattle 24
My
pick: L.A. Rams +1.5

Rest of the bunch

Minnesota at New Orleans
Projected score: New Orleans 27, Minnesota 24
My
pick: Minnesota +7

San Francisco at Arizona
Projected score: Arizona 28, San Francisco 17
My
pick: Arizona -5

Atlanta at Kansas City
Projected score: Kansas City 33, Atlanta 20
My
pick: Kansas City -10.5

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
Projected score: Cleveland 24, N.Y. Jets 7
My
pick: Cleveland -9.5

Chicago at Jacksonville
Projected score: Chicago 23, Jacksonville 17
My
pick: Jacksonville +7.5

N.Y. Giants at Baltimore
Projected score: Baltimore 28, N.Y. Giants 14
My
pick: Baltimore -11

Cincinnati at Houston
Projected score: Houston 21, Cincinnati 10
My
pick: Houston -8

Denver at L.A. Chargers
Projected score: L.A. Chargers 24, Denver 23
My
pick: Denver +3

Carolina at Washington
Projected score: Washington 26, Carolina 21
My
pick: Washington -2.5

Philadelphia at Dallas
Projected score: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 21
My
pick: Philadelphia -2.5

Tennessee at Green Bay
Projected score: Green Bay 33, Tennessee 30
My
pick: Tennessee +3.5

Picks Record

Against the spread in Week 15: 7-7-2
ATS overall: 106-108-8

Straight up in Week 15: 12-4
SU overall: 149-72-1

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