NFL Week 8 Betting Recap: Winds of Change Fail Under Bettors

One of the most overrated factors the public uses when determining wagers is the weather, and that was proven again in NFL Week 8 betting. There were five games that saw the over/under drop four or more points after weather reports of heavy wind were forecast.

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Las Vegas Raider Derek Carr NFL

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Raiders quarterback Derek Carr stuck with short passes in the wind in Cleveland, as that game was the only one in NFL Week 8 betting that hit the under. (Image: AP)

Bettors started to hammer the under on those five games, and were mostly punished for expecting the wind to influence the scores of the contests. Of the five games, only one hit the under. The four others went over.


Wind Blows Away Under

Wind Over/Under Open Closing Line Result
Minnesota at Green Bay 20 mph 55.5 50 Over
Las Vegas at Cleveland 25 mph 55.5 48 Under
Tennessee at Cincinnati 20 mph 54.5 50.5 Over
New England at Buffalo 20 mph 44.5 40.5 Over
New Orleans at Chicago 20 mph 47 42.5 Over
Source: William Hill

At William Hill, 92% of the money wagered on the Minnesota-Green Bay game was on the under. Gamblers bet that the Windy City would drive the under in the New Orleans-Chicago game, putting down 83% of the money on the under. The same percentage was wagered on the New England-Buffalo contest. The only game where gamblers took the over was Tennessee at Cincinnati, with 56% of the money on the over.

Las Vegas traveled to Cleveland and saw 20 mph conditions, but with gusts nearly double that. Field goal kicker Daniel Carlson saw one of his attempts swerve wildly to the left and bounce off the upright.

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who threw for just 112 yards, told reporters after the game that the conditions were challenging.

“Anything over 10 yards, your guess is as good as mine where it was going to end up,” Carr said. “It was ridiculous.”

Big Spread, No Problem For Kansas City

When the line for the Kansas City New York Jets game came out, many were slightly surprised to see it at 20 to 20.5 points in favor of the Chiefs. During the week it came down at some places, such as Caesars and FanDuel, settling at 19.5 by game time, though DraftKings, Station Casinos, Golden Nugget, and South Point kept it at 20 points.

Big lines are usually the kiss of death for gamblers. Of the previous 10 spreads of 20 points or more dating back to 1987, only Dallas as a 22-point pick in 2019 covered.

The Chiefs became the only fourth team in NFL history to cover a spread of 20 or more points, and did so easily, 35-9. The Jets, who are winless, are now 1-7 against the spread.

Tennessee Bettors Get Gift

Sunday marked the first time gamblers in Tennessee could legally bet on the NFL, and BetMGM gave their new customers a gift. When the Titans were shocked by Cincinnati, 31-20, the sportsbook gave refunds on moneyline and spread bets to all residents who wagered on Tennessee, up to $200.

Dumb Bet of the Week

There were a trio of moneyline bets on Kansas City to defeat the New York Jets at three separate sportsbooks. A bettor at William Hill placed a $60,000 moneyline bet on the game at -2800. He won $2,142.

Two other similar wagers were made. One at DraftKings for $30,345 that netted $1,445, and one at PointsBet for $40,000 that paid back $1,900.

Stat of the Week

Tua Tagovailoa became the 22nd different starting quarterback for Miami since 2000, the season following Dan Marino’s retirement. Only the Browns (29) and Bears (24) have had more starting signal-callers over that span.

Tagovailoa finished 12 of 22 for 93 yards and a touchdown. He also covered the spread in the Dolphins 28-17 victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

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