This week’s Sunday night game looks like a good one as the Green Bay Packers play host to the Tennessee Titans. While there will be no fans at Lambeau Field, the Packers are 3.5-point favorites at home, with the over/under set at 56 points.
With the Saints losing two in a row recently, the Packers are now in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the NFC. Of course, both the Saints and Seahawks are just a game behind the 11-3 Packers, meaning Green Bay can’t afford a late-season letdown despite running away with the NFC North title.
Things are far more complicated for Tennessee, which is tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South at 10-4. The good news is that the Titans are in good shape for a Wild Card spot if they don’t win the division.
The Henry Train
There are no secrets in Nashville these days. The Titans are going to give the ball to Derrick Henry until teams can stop him.
Henry has rushed for over 130 yards in four of his last five games, collecting seven touchdowns during that span. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill has proven to be effective in play-action, especially with Corey Davis and A.J. Brown both being serious threats on the outside.
In other words, the Tennessee offense poses a huge challenge for a Green Bay defense that’s been underwhelming for most of the season. To be fair, Za’Darius Smith helps give the Packers a solid pass rush when they’re playing with the lead.
However, the Packers have struggled to stop the run against some of the better teams on their schedule, so they could have their hands full with Henry.
The Perfect Balance
The Packers might have the most balanced offense in the NFL right now. Aaron Rodgers has been his usual self, throwing 40 touchdowns and just four interceptions in 14 games, even if he doesn’t always trust receivers not named Davante Adams.
But running back Aaron Jones is helping to keep defenses honest. He’s racked up at least 90 yards in three of his last four games, making Rodgers and the passing game even more dangerous.
That could be a huge concern for the Tennessee defense. The Titans have conceded at least 30 points in six games this season, shockingly high for a 10-4 team.
Despite a secondary with a decent amount of talent, the Titans have no semblance of a pass rush. That could allow Rodgers to have a lot of time to pick apart the Tennessee defense regardless of what the Packers get from their rushing attack.
Run It Up
Even with an ambitious over/under of 56 points, the smart money is taking the over on that total. The Titans have gone over that total in half of their games, while the Packers have done so in five of their games.
It’s not just that both teams have high-scoring offenses, but both teams are also subpar defensively. Both teams have a serious chance to score 30-plus points, so bet on the over.