Looking for a great middleweight matchup to bet on? UFC 257 has you covered, with an excellent opportunity in the preliminary card providing a bout between Brad Tavares and Antonio Carlos Junior.
Date: Jan 23, 7:00 PM
Brad Tavares (17-7-0)
Tavares is aiming to climb past his current 14th placing in the middleweight rankings. However, he has dropped his last two bouts, with his last being a first round knockout loss to Edmen Shahbazyan back in November of 2019.
His fighting resume shows that he has five wins by knockout, two by submission, and 10 by decision. He also has seven first round finishes with six being knockouts and the other one a submission.
He has a striking accuracy at 40 percent and a grappling accuracy at 27 percent. He lands 3.00 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.76. This is close one to one ratio here with not much room for error.
Tavares has a takedown defense at 77 percent and a significant strike defense at 55 percent. He also averages 1.03 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
Antonio Carlos Junior (11-4-0)
Junior finds himself on a two fight skid as he approaches this matchup. His most recent bout was a split decision loss to Uriah Hall back in September of 2019.
His fighting resume shows that he has nine wins by submission and two by decision. He also has five out of his nine submission victories resulting in first round finishes.
“Cara De Sapato” has a striking accuracy at 44 percent and a grappling accuracy at 44 percent. He lands 1.91 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 1.98. This ratio is little to be desired, as he is not that aggressive nor defends well.
Junior has a takedown defense at 53 percent and a significant strike defense at 53 percent. He also averages 3.70 takedowns and 0.90 submissions every 15 minutes.
Odds For This Event
The market has this one coming in very close to a coin flip. For the moneyline, BookMaker has the odds currently set at:
*odds are subject to changes
Free Betting Pick
Both of these fighters are in strong need of a victory and they both have not fought since 2019. A lot of time has passed for both of them to recover and get back on track.
Junior does not have a very strong standup and mostly relies on his great groundwork. His takedowns are often aggressive, which wears down his opponents.
Tavares defends well against takedowns and is not afraid of the ground game when needed. He also has a much better significant strike ratio so he should perform well there.
Overall, if Tavares cannot seal the deal with a knockout of some kind then look for him to take this by a decision. Junior is slightly mismatched with his weaker approach to striking.
Spooky Express Free Pick: Tavares wins via decision, at -130
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